San Francisco’s Comeback: It’s Complicated (and That’s Very Us)
If you’ve lived here long enough, you know that San Francisco doesn’t move in straight lines. It’s always a cycle of boom, bust, and boom again, usually with a side of chaos in between. Right now the headlines are split: crime is down, rents are up, offices are still half empty (or is it half-full?), and Muni and BART are limping along. So is this a comeback or not? The truth, like most things in The City, is layered.
Tourists are trickling back. Not quite at 2019 levels, but you feel it in the hotels, the ballparks, the farmers markets. International visitors are still down, thanks to national politics that don’t exactly scream “welcome,” but the vibe on the streets is warmer than it was a year ago.
Jobs are shifting. Tech is cutting in some corners while AI is fueling massive investment. Venture capital is flooding back in, but if the AI bubble pops, so does a big chunk of the optimism. At the same time, small businesses are grinding it out. Sales are up, but inflation is eating into the gains. Running a storefront here has never been easy, but some corridors are definitely seeing life again.
Transit is still a work in progress. Muni has made it back to about 70% of pre-pandemic ridership, BART is still under half. Both are facing funding cliffs that only voters (and new taxes) are likely to solve. The good news is people are still riding. The bad news is the systems are held together with duct tape and hope.
Real estate is doing what it always does here: it’s bouncing back. Office vacancies are still sky high, but investors are circling again, buying big buildings they wouldn’t have touched a year ago. Housing is creeping up, rents especially. Landlords are celebrating, buyers are cautiously optimistic with interest rates expected to ease. And luxury? That market has its own momentum. The new wave of AI newcomers all need homes, and their salaries put them in a position to afford the finest. From Pacific Heights to Sea Cliff to luxury condos in SoMa, the high end is seeing fresh energy.
And crime? The data says we’re safer than we’ve been in decades, but the perception is still catching up. Less shattered glass on sidewalks is a start.
Through it all, the vibes are shifting. More people think San Francisco is on the right track compared to just two years ago. Our sports teams, both legacy and brand new, are selling out stadiums. Events are back. The City feels alive, even if it’s a little wobbly.
So is the comeback real? Yes. Is it complete? Not yet. But if there’s one thing San Francisco knows how to do, it’s reinvent itself. We’ve been counted out before, and we always come back louder, bolder, and stronger.
Thinking of making your move in San Francisco? Reach out. I can help you cut through the noise, connect you with the right people, and figure out what truly adds value. The City is complicated, but your real estate journey doesn’t have to be. 😊