The Overbid Is Back in San Francisco. But Not Everywhere.
There's a number floating around San Francisco right now that keeps making people's eyes go wide. Eighty-five percent. That's the share of single-family homes in The City that sold above asking price in early 2026. The average overbid hit 23% over list price… tying April 2022 for the highest ever recorded.
Five homes sold more than a million dollars over asking in a single week in March. One property on 12th Avenue (my neighborhood, for the record) reportedly went roughly 70% above its listed price. Seventy percent. That's not a bidding war. That's a full-contact sport.
And yet.
If you own a condo in San Francisco right now, you're reading those numbers and feeling like they're describing a different city. Because for condos, the story is quieter. About 62% of condo sales went over asking, with an average premium of 7%. Still strong by most standards… but it's not the same frenzy. The gap between houses and condos has become one of the defining features of this market, and it's worth understanding why before you make any decisions based on a headline.
Here's what I'm seeing on the ground, not from a spreadsheet, but from writing offers, attending open houses, and talking to the agents on the other side of the table.
The single-family overbid market is being driven by a very specific collision of forces. Inventory is still painfully low. Buyers who waited through 2023 and 2024 have decided that rates aren't going back to 3% and they need to stop sitting on the sidelines. And AI wealth… yes, AI wealth… is changing who shows up at open houses in certain neighborhoods. The tech money that used to flow from stock options is now flowing from AI company equity, and those buyers are paying cash or waiving contingencies in ways that feel like 2021 all over again.
But condos? Condos are dealing with different math. HOA fees are higher than they've ever been. Special assessments keep surprising buildings that looked healthy on paper. Insurance costs are climbing. And the new condo financing guidelines that lenders are rolling out have made it harder (not impossible, just harder) for certain buildings to qualify for conventional financing. All of that creates friction that doesn't exist when someone's buying a house with a yard and no shared walls.
So what does this mean if you're trying to buy or sell in San Francisco right now?
If you're a house seller: you are in a historically strong position, but only if your property is priced correctly and presented well. The overbids are real, but they're not automatic. Homes that are overpriced, poorly staged, or have disclosure issues are still sitting. The market is rewarding preparation, not assumptions.
If you're a condo seller: you're in a solid market, not a euphoric one. Price it right, know your building's financial health inside and out, and be ready to answer questions about HOA reserves and insurance. Buyers are doing more homework than they used to, and the ones who show up with offers are serious.
If you're a buyer: the competition for houses is real and you need to come prepared. That means pre-approval in hand, a clear sense of your ceiling, and an agent who knows how to structure an offer that stands out without overexposing you. For condos, there's more room to negotiate and more inventory to choose from, but you need to understand the building, not just the unit.
The headline says the overbid is back. And it is. But San Francisco has never been a city where one headline tells the whole story. It never has been, and it never will be. The details live in the gaps between the numbers, and that's where the real decisions get made.
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Yes. In early 2026, 85% of single-family home sales in San Francisco sold above list price with an average overbid of 23%, tying the all-time record from 2022. Condos sold over asking only 62% of the time.
