Why Waiting for the IPO Headline is a Strategy for Second Place

In San Francisco, timing a luxury listing usually follows a predictable rhythm: wait for the spring blossoms or the post-Labor Day rush. But for homeowners in the $5M+ bracket, there is a quieter, more significant clock running in the background. It isn’t tied to the seasons, but to the SEC.

When a major tech company goes public, the headlines focus on the opening price. Most sellers take that as their cue to start prepping. They wait for the "buzz" to materialize, thinking the visibility will drive up their exit price.

The reality on the ground in The City is different. By the time the general public is reading about lock-up expirations, the most motivated buyers have already made their move.

In the luxury market, we deal with "pre-wealth" urgency. This is the window where founders, early employees, and investors are looking to secure their next chapter before the rest of the world crowds the field. They aren't waiting for the lock-up to expire (they are planning for the life that follows it).

As we look at the 2026 calendar, the pipeline is already heavy. Discord is currently targeting a March debut, and the shadow of a massive Databricks offering looms later in the year. We are also tracking Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which are signaling readiness for late 2026 or early 2027. If you launch your home once these names are already trading on the ticker, you aren't leading the market… you’re chasing it.

Selling a high-end asset in San Francisco requires looking past the standard neighborhood comps. It requires tracking these specific vesting schedules and understanding when liquidity will actually hit the private sector. Success in this tier isn't about catching the wave. It’s about being in the water before the tide moves.