The Season That Didn’t Slow Down: San Francisco’s Unexpected Price Surge

San Francisco did something it rarely does in November. It got hot.

Not the weather. The market.

While The City was settling into its foggy holiday rhythm, sales data rolled in and showed something we almost never see this time of year. Home prices spiked, demand surged, and the usual seasonal slowdown… didn’t. According to new data, San Francisco’s median single-family home price jumped to $1.8M on a three-month rolling basis. On a single-month basis, the median was almost 15 percent higher than last November. That’s the strongest pricing we’ve seen since mid-2022.

So, what’s going on here?

It’s the “autumn of AI.” And its ripple effect on housing is real.

Since late summer, the influx of new capital, new hires, and new headquarters has created a wave of buyers who moved quickly and decisively. That extra demand collided with tight inventory. Listings dropped 35 percent year-over-year going into December. Fewer homes plus more qualified buyers is always a recipe for competition, but this fall took it to another level.

Eighty-two percent of single-family homes sold above asking in November. On average, houses closed 16 percent over their original list price. Even condos, which have spent the past few years in a softer cycle, saw median prices rise and sold just over asking on average.

Luxury was one of the biggest beneficiaries. Homes that sat for years suddenly found buyers. A $17.75M home on Broadway closed after two years on the market. Another $16.5M sale in Clarendon Heights followed the same pattern. October alone saw the highest number of $5M-plus sales in four years.

But here’s the nuance. This isn’t a free-for-all. It’s a bifurcated market.

Homes that are well-positioned, updated, or priced intelligently are getting absorbed in under 30 days. Houses averaged 26 days on market in November. On the flip side, more than half of active listings have been sitting for over two months. A third have been listed more than three months. Quality and presentation matter more than ever. Strategy matters. And accuracy matters most of all.

What I’m seeing on the ground mirrors the data. Buyers who spent the last year waiting for rates to drop are coming back because the opportunity cost of waiting has become too painful. Mortgage rates are near a 14-month low. Stocks rebounded. AI hiring continues. And people are tired of pressing pause on their lives. They want homes again, and they’re willing to compete for the ones they love.

Will this momentum last? December always cools, and the market is watching the Federal Reserve closely. A rate cut could unlock even more demand, but even without it, the foundation is there. High demand. Low supply. A tech sector in acceleration mode. It all points to a competitive start to 2026.

If you’re a buyer, preparation is everything. If you’re a seller, the story isn’t just that prices are up. It’s that the right home, launched the right way, can outperform dramatically.

San Francisco has always reinvented itself. This version just happens to run on GPUs and optimism. And for the first time in a while, both are showing up in the housing market.