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October 2007 Sales Data is Here!

The latest market report is here. Prices are still UP from last year, and on par with last month. And “days of market” is STILL lower than last year, albeit not by much.
I’m not the type of REALTOR that’s out there trying to paint a rosy picture for you. But, I’d like to point out that it’s not all as bleak as it appears in the “doom and gloom” articles.
A client of mine, after reading about the “gloom and doom” to come stated that:

“we have our eyes open for a realistic deal but we expect it to be April at the earliest before the market has adjusted. There is a guy down the street from us trying to sell a light-starved, ground floor condo directly across from the firestation. He listed it in early August at $750K. It has been open every weekend Sat and Sun since then. And he still has it listed at $750K. I’ll make a prediction. By April of next year he will be struggling to get $500K for it.”

My response was:

“I too agree we have a market correction happening, but I can’t imagine that a condo in Eureka Valley or Duboce Triangle or Noe will lose a third of its value in 6 months time. However, a ground floor condo across the street from the fire station may not have been worth $750K to begin with. What we have are a lot of unrealistic sellers that result in some drastic price reductions.

I do think that you’ll definitely be able to pick something decent up in the next few months. And I don’t think we’re immune from downward price pressure. I definitely do foresee corrections in the 5-10% range on certain properties that were bought at the peak and are being sold just 2 years later in areas that just aren’t “hot.”

I think the right place will come along for you eventually…. But you can’t time the market like you time waves (I don’t surf, but I kayak, and waves come in odd numbers). I think we’ll get a sense of where the market will be at in January. It’s typical that November and December are slow months and that things pick back up in January. In fact, last year around this time, interest rates had crept up, and there were plenty of gloom and doom articles around then too, and SF didn’t spiral into a decline at that time either. I try to keep a balanced perspective of the market, so trust me, I’m not all optimistic and doe eyed about the market, and I don’t see properties appreciating drastically over the next year or two. In fact, if you bought in the last year or two, I highly suggest you wait at least another year or two before selling (ideally 3 or 4 more years).

I think time will tell what will happen!”

And I’ll tell you all the same thing… the sky isn’t falling out of the real estate market in San Francisco. But things are changing, and not every property sells in 3 weeks with multiple offers for exorbitant amounts over asking. Check out the statistics… the changes that economists have been predicting still haven’t kicked in. But I promist that I’ll let you know if they do.